SA Footy

Let it ride

Cash out and off to the US and Europe next week.

Keep it, Victory are almost certs to win it

Yeah reckon I'd keep it to, then just bet against the Victory in the finals to make sure I still got something out of it. Be a nice dilemma to have.

let it ride, then put at least 10-20k on whoever plays the victory in the grand final. they will probably be at $3 or so, so you can lock up a fair win there.

bennymacca wrote:let it ride, then put at least 10-20k on whoever plays the victory in the grand final. they will probably be at $3 or so, so you can lock up a fair win there.

This ^
(unless they played Adelaide United, then you could let it ride).

Lets get things into perspective
You get $3-85 for a $2-75 favorite going into the last leg
Thats good odds
If you get this opportunity say 50 times , the law of probability says you will make $$$$$$
That 50 times would apply to bets of $1 bets to $100,000 bets
As a one off bet the logic changes though
As a one off you either win or lose
Over a 50 time scenario you would almost certainly win

In this instance I think the bookie is being GENEROUS to the punter
The punter has successfully accrued 5 legs
$25,936.09 is where the punter sits after the first 5 legs have won
$32,922.14 is being offered to the punter to call off the investment
$6986.05 is an amount being offered to the punter to call the bet off

That $6886.05 changes things
Lets put it this way
You go up to a bookie and ask for a bet of $25936.09 at $3-85, the bookie says
" Sir , the odds in the market place is $2-75 , can we give you $6986.07 not to have the bet?"
Now the $3-55 for a $2-75 fav has been negated

Ask yourself this question
If one bookie puts up $3-85 for a $2-75 favorite would you have $25936.09 on it in any case ?
Im tipping any punter who started the bet off with $15 would not have a $25936.09 bet ?

I would take the $32,922.06
As Mighty_Tiger79 says
" Every time you win you dont lose"

JK wrote:Yeah reckon I'd keep it to, then just bet against the Victory in the finals to make sure I still got something out of it. Be a nice dilemma to have.

Also a sound way to tackle this
You would have to bet in the draw no bet options with a bookie
You are guarenteed a profit no matter what either way
Albiet a reduced profit if MV win the title, but a return if they dont win the title

However , you would be placing bets of say $10,000 + per bet in the elimination stages on the opposition team
Each time MV wins at elimination stage, means you have to more or less double the bet the next game
So if you start with $10000 as the first bet = something like $15,000 to $20,000 the next bet[to get the $10,00 lost on the first as well]
Perhaps the punter has not got this sort of cash flow to do this

This would all be subject the maximum amount of elimination finals MV would play in

Im not sure how many elimination finals they could possibly play in
Do they get a double chance like football ????????????????????????????

mighty_tiger_79 wrote:Let it ride

One of my favorite movies

I would probably ride it out until semi final stage, and hope they come in another 50 points. This could lift the cashout by a substantial amount.

And then id be out.

It all comes down to Risk Profile, and if you are willing to take the deal (est 40K, or risk losing it all).

I know id prefer to turn my $15 into $40K, risk free.

Not always wise to cash out. A mate had an 8-leg multi on the wkend with an outlay of $1 to return $1050. He needed Freo to win 1-39 going into his last leg. Late in the 3rd qtr when Freo up by 72 pts he decided to cash out $56!! You guessed it West Coast kicked 8 out of the last 9 goals to win by 30 pts!

To say my mate is spewing is an understatement.

However if he had cashed out prior to that match he could have taken prob $4-500 , that may have been a smarter play, but that's hindsight.

Feel for ya mate though, pretty unusual turnaround last night.

Cashing out $56 hardly seems worth it.

bennymacca wrote:Cashing out $56 hardly seems worth it.

My thoughts exactly

It was awesome for my fantasy team though, lecras scored 54 points in the last quarter, more than doubling his original tally, and it got me across the line

No decision, take the money and run.

bennymacca wrote:Cashing out $56 hardly seems worth it.

He spent $1, he made a fantastic return on investment.

anyone know if the guy has let it ride or cashed out?

It's probably a fake anyway.